Sunday, August 17, 2008

TS Fay, Update 2, 17 Aug 1800L

The track guidance continues to nudge to the west, which probably means a worse storm for somebody on the Gulf Coast.

The NHC has moved the forecast track only slightly farther west, and has it going more or less directly over Key West. They admit that their forecast track is still east of the model guidance, and the situation is a function of a "lurch" the storm made to the west during the day today.

This track has the storm hitting Tampa as a hurricane on Tuesday, and apparently strengthening as it passes Key West.

The current visible satellite shot shows a fairly disorganized system, but one which appears to be gradually recurving in front of the high pressure ridge in the Gulf. Movement of that ridge to the east (which will happen) will tend to sharpen Fay's turn, which is undoubtedly why the NHC has the forecast track as far east as it is.

But it looks like Fay has been trying to tuck under that ridge all along, which is why she has come as far west as she has already.

Overall I think the NHC track is pretty good, with the storm passing just to the west of Key West.

Intensity, however, is kind of a crap shoot. While the storm presents as pretty disorganized right now, and will probably become more disorganized over Cuba, once she gets into the hot Gulf waters she can spin up pretty quick. We'll just have to see.


John the Scientist said...

Is Alternate Adios HQ all buttoned up?

Nathan said...

Thanks for the continuing coverage. I've got a brother in Tampa, one in St. Augustine and more family in Jacksonville.