Saturday, August 16, 2008

TS Fay, Update 1, 16 Aug 2300L

Here's the recent model guidance:


It shows the storm probably tracking a little west of the keys. Also the most recent Hurricane Hunters flight found a somewhat weakened storm following its emergence from the claw of Haiti.

The storm came off of Hispaniola a little south of where I expected, which I think is what shifted the model guidance a little farther west. I wouldn't be surprised to see the track nudge a little farther west over the next 24 hours.

That is, of course, bad for the Gulf Coast. Once in the Gulf, this storm could well intensify significantly.

5 comments:

Nathan said...

I'm going to add "Do Not Use For Life Or Death Decisions" to every memo I publish from now on!

Thank you for this public service.

CW said...

It's like the warnings on aircraft weather reports, etc, that say "Land at your own risk!". As if I sometimes landed at someone else's risk...

John the Scientist said...

If the models are correct, then no matter where the thing lands, some part of Florida is screwed.

CW said...

It's not a bad storm. The difference between a Cat 1 and a Cat 3 is (literally) logarithmic.

Of course it could intensify - but the least time it spends over water, the better for whatever part of Florida gets it.

John the Scientist said...

Yeah, but aren't there a lot of FEMA roofs still left all over FL? I was thinking of those people.